Commenting on today's NHS Waiting List figures for October that were released today, Dr Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, LCP’s Head of Health Analytics, said:

“Today’s figures show that waiting lists have reached new heights of 6 million but this is just the tip of the iceberg. Underpinning this figure is 7.8 million people in England who are ‘hidden’. Health Secretary Sajid Javid has suggested that waiting lists could reach as high as 13 million without further intervention, however, by combining the numbers of those currently waiting with the people who have not yet come forward for treatment due to Covid-19, we have found that we are already above the 13 million mark. In fact, we predict that without intervention the level of need can be expected to peak at 15.5 million in 2023 and still stand at 13.5 million in 2024.

“Even with the planned government intervention, the health need will be sky high. We predict that even with the impact of government policies to increase capacity by 30%, the total unmet need levels would be over 10 million in 2024.  The North West of England has been hardest hit. CCGs from the North West accounted for 50% of the top 10 CCGs with the greatest hidden need at 6 months and 18 months into the pandemic.

"To prevent what could be a frightening scenario for the NHS, the government needs to urgently look at the data available to better target funding and resources to clear the backlog efficiently and prevent worsening health inequalities. In the face of potentially more disruption and pressure to services from the Omicron variant this need becomes even more pressing."