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Show hosts Dan Mikulskis and Mary Spencer welcome back LCP's resident epidemiologist Dr Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard to explore the market's response to the vaccine rollout, the likelihood of it's success and the risks attached to it. 

We discuss:

• It feels like markets have priced in a relatively positive vaccine rollout story since the last episode with Dr Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard. But how likely is this to work out? Could there be risks?
• The vaccine rollout has only been going for 6 weeks and already more than 6 million have been vaccinated. 
• Winter is the best time for the virus and the worst time for the NHS. Many health experts including Jonathan predicted last year that this could be the toughest time, which is how it has turned out. 
• Lockdown is having an effect and impact on cases but at a slower rate then before. 

Things you need to see before easing of lockdown:  

1. Case numbers need to be down to a manageable level;
2. Reducing number of hospitalisations (this is becoming a key policy number to watch). 

• There has been a change in government tone as they are no longer providing specific dates which helps to avoid putting hopes up and it won’t erode goodwill across the public – the previous attempts to put dates out have turned out to be false hope.
• Vaccine rollout, when do we get to herd immunity? Thought to be around 70-80% but this depends on the R rate. A more important question though is when does the vaccine rollout start to reduce hospital admissions and deaths?
• There will be 88% less deaths once the 4 priority groups are vaccinated (which will probably be by mid-Feb) as found by the Actuaries Covid-19 response group which was widely reported 2 weeks ago. However it will take until mid-March for there to be a significant impact on admissions. 

1 dose vs 2 doses?

Can either do a dose 4 weeks apart or 12 weeks apart but by doing the latter many more people have some immunity with 1 dose rather than fewer people with more immunity. There is not much science behind this as it is new, so the UK is monitoring. From a population perspective the 1 dose strategy has rationale behind it.

Lockdown and politics

• In the coming weeks, given how well the vaccine is rolling out, we expect that the government would want to ensure that this is the last lockdown, which could in turn buy them capital to enforce measures. MP’s still need to decide when schools reopen as children’s futures are at stake.
• UK ahead of the world on the vaccine roll out, but what does this mean for other countries eg emerging markets who don’t have the same access as us? It is variable across the world, it might even take 18 months or even 2 years for these countries to catch up. 
• Interesting implications as to whether we continue to have strict lockdowns and for how long. Covid-19 is here for the rest of our lives and it could be an annual vaccine like the flu. However, there are many complexities to consider including whether the mutations would be covered by the current vaccine.

What’s the range of estimates of getting back to normality?

This article on best case scenarios from The Times showcases lockdown easing by May. Normal is quite far out, so we will just see shades of normal. Jonathan says that we need to see hospitalisations and cases decline continuously. However we have reason to be optimistic that we may move to a regional based tier system and gradually move down the tiers in the summer at some point hopefully. Read more information on our research supporting the tier system in this blog: Will it all end in tiers?

Also our LCP Covid-19 tracker displays data that shows daily numbers on those who tested positive, and ONS data on the overall population. It aims to update as often as the PHE daily testing numbers but with data similar to the more comprehensive ONS studies. 

It’s not all doom and gloom… what's the positive takeaway on overall health?

Jonathan's book with Dame Sally Davies highlights that education is no longer the biggest predictor of the future and to get a good job, but being healthy is a more prominent factor. If we value health for what it can provide, it will allow you to learn and be happy – this is what we need to focus on.

We also discuss whether the health index becomes a national statistic and could start to see this being used as an alternative to GDP.

The challenge is with public health and why investment has been incentivised around mending the cracks. The index incentivises the government which will legitimise the investment and provide opportunities to see more return. This will go further in developing the whole health system, not just focusing on A&E to paper over the cracks.

One key takeaway

Getting back to total normality is very uncertain - hopefully we are over the worst of it but Covid-19 will be here for many years to come.

1 thing that is going underappreciated at the moment 

Find time to have a little laugh each day. For example did you know that pensioners queuing for the vaccine were mistaken for an illegal rave!

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Each LCP investment uncut podcast is for information and marketing purposes only and does not constitute any form of investment or financial advice or a financial promotion (under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000). All views expressed by the podcast hosts and guests are purely their own opinions and do not represent those of LCP, its clients or affiliates. Our podcast listeners should always seek independent financial or legal advice before making any financial or investment decisions. Please refer to the Legal Notices section on the LCP website for further information.​