Episode 10: Forecasting
in volatile times with Natalie Brain
29 April 2020
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In this episode hosts Dan Mikulskis and Mary Spencer sit down with Natalie Brain, investment consultant and member of LCP’s macro team and talk about revising economic forecasts after an extreme shock, like the one we’re currently experiencing.
- Making economic forecasts when no-one knows anything for sure.
- How our research process has evolved in a fast-moving world.
- Our central economic scenario (55% likelihood) and downside/upside scenarios ( 35% / 15%)
- What are the key things we’re tracking that will affect economic forecasts from here?
- Will we ever see inflation again?
- We explore the ways in which this shock be felt for many years to come, for example, will the shift to online change the dynamics of things like office properties?
- What about the future of globalisation in a post covid-19 world?
- Do the US election and Brexit still matter? These loomed large as economy and market-driving events at the start of the year, but are they even relevant anymore?
- Finally we discuss investment views – why we like credit asset classes here, and remain positive on equities.
Useful links referred to in our podcast this week
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